充满挑战的2020年

 

The challenges for 2020

 

 

承接2019年的跌势，2020年第一个月的CNPI指数继续微跌0.1%至803点。农历新年假期，加上武汉肺炎的疫情蔓延，中国造船厂很可能推迟开工日期。即使正月十五（也即2月8日）后开工未必招募到足够的劳力，还要采取各种防控措施，以免在工厂发生疫情，间接又提高了成本；万一发生疫情被封了工厂，那损失就更大了。外国买家对中国的疫情也会有所顾忌，至少会采取Wait and see的策略。
 

 

Following the decline in 2019, the CNPI continued to edge down 0.1% to 803 points in the first month of 2020. Chinese shipbuilders are likely to delay work due to the spread of a coronavirus causing pneumonia in Wuhan. Even if production resumes after February 8, as is traditionally the case, it may not be possible to recruit enough man powers, and various protection and control measures must be taken to prevent outbreaks in yards, indirectly raising costs. If an outbreak were to shut down the yard, the loss would be even bigger. Foreign buyers will also be wary of an outbreak in China, or at least wait and see. 
 

 

因此，一家不愿透露字号的CNPI指数报价委员向CNPI表示：“2020年上半年市场将继续下滑，2020年夏天以后会迎来一波新的行情。”

 

"The market will continue to decline in the first half of 2020 and there will be a new wave of prices after the summer of 2020," 

 

a panel member broker told CNPI.

 

 

我认为这位经纪人的观点还算是比较乐观的。疫情对本来已经处于下行的中国经济可谓雪上加霜。虽然到底会产生多大多久的影响还需做进一步观察，但BDI的暴跌和CNPI的持续滑落其实已经预告了一部分影响。工厂推迟复工，用电量就会减少，电煤和原材料消耗就会降低，最后影响钢材的需求。疫情如果延续或恶化，甚至影响到中国出口货物被其他国家列为需要进行特别检疫，那么影响将进一步加剧。

 

The outbreak shall make downward pressure on China's economy. It remains to be seen how much and how long the impact will be, but the BDI crash and the continued slide in CNPI have already foretold some of the impact. When factories resume work later, electricity consumption will decline, and so will coal and raw material consumption, which will eventually affect steel demand. If the outbreak continues and/or expands, Chinese export cargoes may be required by other countries to take special quarantine inspection, the impact will be magnified.

 

据第一财经报道：

According to the China Business Network：
 

“在最新一期《世界经济展望》报告中，国际货币基金组织（IMF）称全球经济呈现‘初步企稳但复苏乏力’的混合迹象，将2020年和2021年贸易增速预期分别下调0.3和0.1个百分点，至2.9%和3.7%。世贸组织（WTO）此前预计2020年的商品贸易量将增长2.7%，认为原材料和电子零部件的疲软将延续。“
 

"in its latest world economic outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the global economy showed mixed signs of 'initial stabilization but weak recovery,' cutting its trade growth forecasts for 2020 and 2021 by 0.3% and 0.1% to 2.9% and 3.7%, respectively. The World Trade Organization had forecasted a 2.7% increase in world trade in 2020, citing continued weakness in raw materials and electronic components."

 

2019年新接订单指标表现不好是预料中事。CANSI根据Clarksons的数据统计结果显示，2019年全球的新接订单为2545万修正总吨，比2018年下降了12.2%。其中，中国2019年的新接订单为835万修正总吨，跌幅10.5%；韩国在2019年的接单量为943万修正总吨，比2018年大跌24.3%。但是，韩国的新接订单仍居世界首位，占37%，而在2018年韩国的比重更高，达43%；虽然中国的新接订单占比从2018年的32.2%轻微上升到2019年的32.8%，但也只能继续坐稳老二的位置。

 

 

A general poor performance of new orders in 2019 is expected. According to CANSI statistics (data from Clarksons), global new orders in 2019 were 25.45 million CGT, down 12.2% from 2018, within which 8.35 million CGT went to China in 2019, down 10.5%; South Korea received 9.43 million CGT in 2019, down 24.3% from 2018. However, South Korea still leads the world in terms of new orders, accounting for 37% in 2019. South Korea's share was even higher at 43% in 2018. While China's share of new orders rose slightly from 32.2 % in 2018 to 32.8% in 2019 remained at the second place.

 

手持订单方面，按修正总吨统计，2019年全球手持订单7660万修正总吨，比2018年减少了4.1%；中国在全球造船市场仍然保持第一的位置，占35.5%，但比2018年下降了5%；韩国占29.4%，比2018年上升了8.2%；日本占15.7%，比2018年下降了12.6%。

 

The global orderbook level reached 76.6 million CGT in 2019, a decrease of 4.1% over 2018. China still holds the No.1 position, accounting for 35.5%, but this is down 5% from 2018. South Korea accounted for 29.4%, up 8.2% from 2018; Japan accounted for 15.7%, down 12.6% from 2018.

 

同样按修正总吨统计，2019年全球完工量为3281万修正总吨，比2018年增加了8.6%；中国在完工量方面也继续保持领先，占33.8%，比2018年微增1.7%；韩国占29%，比2018年大增23.5%；日本占24.8%，比2018年上升了8.2%。

 

In 2019, the global total deliveries were 32.81 million CGT, an increase of 8.6% over 2018. China continued to be No.1, accounting for 33.8%, up 1.7% from 2018. South Korea accounted for 29%, up 23.5% from 2018. Japan accounted for 24.8%, up 8.2% from 2018.

 

 

干散货船：外国船厂新接订单增加

 

Dry Bulkers：New Orders Increased in Foreign Yards

 

中国新造干散货船价格综合指数CNDPI一月份继续环比下跌0.24%至827点，比去年同期下跌2.8%。以好望角型船来说，一月份的指数同比下跌2.0%；卡姆萨型船指数同比下跌4.0%。

 

The CNDPI continued its month-on-month decline of 0.24% to 827 points in January, down 2.8% from a year earlier. Capesize sub-index in January was down 2.0% and Kamsarmax sub-index fell 4.0% from a year earlier.

 

2019年中国新接散货船订单比2018年大幅下降58.6%（按艘数计）或65.5%（按载重吨计），但与此同时，外国船厂（主要是日本船厂）的干散货船新接订单却比去年同期上升40.0%（按艘数）和22.9%（按载重吨）。富洋船舶经纪写给CNPI的评论指出：“日本船东散货船大概率选择日本船厂”。即使在中国船厂下单，也多选日系船厂（如常石或扬子三井等）。

 

New orders for bulk carriers in China fell 58.6% (in number of ships) or 65.5% (in deadweight tons) in 2019 from 2018, while new orders for dry bulk carriers at foreign yards (mainly Japanese yards) rose 40.0% (in number of ships) and 22.9% (in deadweight tons) in 2019 from 2018. "Japanese shipowners are more likely to choose Japanese yards for bulk carriers," Forocean shipbrokers wrote in a comment to CNPI. 

 

 

液散货船：2019年新接订单大幅增加

 

Tanker：New Order Increased in 2019

 

 

中国新造油轮价格综合指数CNTPI一月份微跌0.23%至856点，比去年同期下跌1.5%。CNPI指数报价委员称，近期MR、LR2和苏伊士型仍有询价。2019年中国液散货船的新接订单倒是比2018年大幅增加22.0%（艘数）和127.5%（载重吨），主要原因还是2018年的接单量太少，基数小导致增长率暴涨。外国船厂（主要是韩国）新接订单虽然艘数略微减少了1.9%，但按载重吨计仍上升了13.3%。

 

CNTPI for oil tankers edged down 0.23% in Jan from Dec 2019 to 856 points, down 1.5% from a year earlier. CNPI panel brokers said that the recent MR, LR2 and Suezmax still have inquiries. In 2019, the new orders of tankers in China increased by 22.0% (in number of ships) and 127.5% (in deadweight tons) compared with 2018, mainly because the orders received in 2018 were too small and the growth rate soared due to a small base. New orders placed to foreign yards, mainly South Korea, rose 13.3% in deadweight tons, despite a slight 1.9% decline in number of ships.

 

 

集装箱船：中国船厂大船订单增加

 

Boxship：Big Ship Order Increased in Chinese Yards

中国新造集装箱船价格指数CNCPI一月份与去年年底持平，报835点，比去年同期下跌4.0%。五个分船型指数中四个微跌，2700箱型则回升了0.45%，主要是部分报价委员调高了对这款船型的估值。由于缺少成交数据，所以这个回升不具有启示性。

 

The CNCPI was flat at 835 points in January from the end of last year, down 4.0% from a year earlier. Four of the five sub-indices fell slightly, while the 2,700 teu index rose 0.45%, mainly because some panel members raised the valuation of this type of ship. However, the rise is not revelatory because of lack of fixtures.

 

2019年新接集装箱船订单比2018年大幅缩减了62.7%（艘数）和38.2%（TEU），其中中国船厂的接单艘数减少69.5%、TEU增长9.9%，说明中国船厂接单量中的大船比例上升，外国船厂（主要是韩国）则按艘数大幅减少了56.1%，按TEU大幅减少了49.4%。中国的融资租赁公司在其中起了不小的作用（详见CNPI市场报告第147期）。

 

New orders for containerships reduced by 62.7% (in number of ships) and 38.2% (in TEU) in 2019 compared with 2018, among which orders received by Chinese yards decreased by 69.5% in number of ships but increased by 9.9% in capacity (teu), indicating that the proportion of large ships received by Chinese yards increased, while foreign yards (mainly South Korea) decreased by 56.1% in number of ships and 49.4% in capacity (teu) respectively. Chinese finance leasing companies play a significant role in promoting big ship orders (see CNPI market report no. 147).

 

长期来看，全球集装箱班轮市场在经济减缓的阴影下前景不容乐观。徐剑华教授在《新一轮全球经济衰退阴影下的集装箱航运业年度回顾和前景展望》一文中认为，全球不确定性继续给海运市场带来压力，航运公司在资本市场遭本世纪最冷“寒冬”。

 

In the long run, the prospects for the global container liner market is in the shadow of the economic slowdown. Professor Xu Jianhua believes that global uncertainties continue to put pressure on the container liner market, with shipping companies suffering the coldest "winter" in the capital market this century. 

 

Alphaliner警告称：

Alphaliner warned that：

 

“TEU乘数”(集装箱吞吐量增长幅度与GDP增长幅度的比值)在继续下降。从历史上看，上世纪90年代的TEU乘数为3.4，本世纪初为2.6。但自2008年金融危机以来，这一比例已降至1.4附近，Alphaliner预计2019年，集装箱对GDP的“TEU乘数”将降至1以下。

the "TEU multiplier" -- the ratio of container throughput growth to GDP growth -- continued to decline. Historically, the TEU multiplier was 3.4 in the 1990s and 2.6 at the begining of this century. But since the 2008 financial crisis, that ratio has fallen to around 1.4, and Alphaliner expects the container "TEU multiplier" to fall below 1 in 2019.

 

其他船型 ：气体船或成新增长点

 

Other Ship Types：Gas Carrier May Become New Hope

 

 

在国外船厂气体船新接订单下降的同时，中国船厂在2019年新接订单比2018年有显著的增长，按艘数计增长了133.3%，按吨位（立方米）计增长了194.0%。

While foreign yards saw a decline in new orders for gas carriers, Chinese yards saw a significant increase in new orders in 2019 compared with 2018, up 133.3% in terms of number of vessels and 194.0% in terms of capacity (cubic meters). "The gas carrier orders are still backed by long time charter and financial institutions," said Forocean Shipbrokers.

 

富洋船舶经纪认为：“气体船订单的背后仍是有长租约和金融机构的支持。”

 

富洋进一步指出：“随着欧洲船东在客滚船新船订单选择中国船厂来建造并有成功的交付经验，越来越多的欧洲船东开始尝试除了德国船厂及东欧船厂以外的中国船厂来下单订造。Finnlines在招商局金陵（威海）的订单就是很好的例子。”

 

Forocean Shipbrokers further pointed out that 

 

"as European shipowners choose Chinese yards for new orders of ropax and have successful delivery experience, more and more European shipowners are trying to place ropax orders in Chinese yards other than German and/or other European yards. Finnlines' order at China Merchants Jinling (Weihai) is a good example. "

 

一月份披露的新船订单           

(详见完整版)

 

Newbuilding Orders Disclosed in Jan. 2020

......

 

This is an abridged copy only. Full text is available at Market Review for subscribers only.

 

 

 

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